Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f41…f255
other · 7 markets active 2h ago
9.0score
+$230 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$235 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$195
Realized+$235
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage205d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit29%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$235
14 days+$235
30 days+$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $202 +$77 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$64 +63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $306 −$11 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $323 +$125 +39%
Clippers vs. Magic Nov 21 $2 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 91% +$166
sports 9% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $131 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $149 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 42h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $166 42h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $294 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $306 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $420 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $192 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 31¢ $28 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $31 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Clippers vs. Magic SELL Clippers 23¢ $2 204d
Clippers vs. Magic BUY Clippers 19¢ $2 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.2% -3.0% 60% 60% +12.8%
≤30d 5 +7.2% -3.0% 60% 60% +12.8%
≤90d 5 +7.2% -3.0% 60% 60% +12.8%
all 6 +9.5% -0.9% 67% 67% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 67% +12.8%
10% -10.4% 50% +2.0%
15% -19.0% 50% -7.9%
20% -27.0% 17% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.92 · official $194.92 (match) · 17 history records