Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:15:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4f3d…2023 crypto 627 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29,396 (-11%) realized −$29,316 · open −$80
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%401W / 222L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$999est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$620now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,926
7 days+$9,910
14 days+$10,833
30 days+$10,833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$17,701
other 25% +$8,231
crypto 10% −$101
world 6% −$15,459
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +32.3% +19.7% 50% 50% +47.7%
≤30d 18 +33.4% +20.7% 61% 61% +43.2%
≤90d 103 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 53% -18.4%
all 623 +1.4% -8.3% 64% 50% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 50% -18.1%
10% -17.1% 39% -25.9%
15% -25.1% 27% -33.1%
20% -32.4% 19% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$410 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$620
Realized−$29,316
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses401 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$999
Open positions2
Markets (closed)623 / 627
History coverage136d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 623 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $500 $422 −$78 (-16%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 64¢ 63¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $204 −$107 -53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $512 −$23 -4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $4,038 +$1,838 +46%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $71 −$56 -78%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,040 −$125 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,018 +$1,310 +129%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $505 +$268 +53%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $2,019 +$922 +46%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $1,024 +$4,230 +413%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $2,025 +$1,365 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 17 $101 +$60 +60%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 17 $803 +$127 +16%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $1,008 +$344 +34%
Will a team from England be the 2026 Champions League winner? Jun 17 $1,000 +$393 +39%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $203 −$200 -98%
Will a team from Germany be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 05 $100 −$32 -32%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 May 05 $1,004 +$121 +12%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $2,222 −$2,200 -99%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5 May 04 $100 +$19 +18%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 04 $202 +$115 +57%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 04 $453 +$103 +23%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2,020 −$1,979 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $303 +$145 +48%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $2,026 +$1,483 +73%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? May 02 $10 +$18 +172%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 02 $20 +$11 +55%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $200 +$96 +48%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 02 $200 +$96 +48%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $404 −$400 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $4,042 −$4,000 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 28 $100 −$98 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $1,210 +$356 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $500 +$728 +146%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 26 $2,000 +$1,240 +62%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 25 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 25 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $5,000 −$4,769 -95%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $2,000 +$919 +46%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 22 $500 +$309 +62%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 22 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $2,700 −$2,298 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 11m
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $96 31m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 23¢ $488 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,876 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $3,029 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes $15 3h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $71 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 52¢ $2,915 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,018 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $624 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,704 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $773 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,018 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $2,019 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $513 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 20¢ $1,024 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 78¢ $99 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $10 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 24¢ $102 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 19¢ $1,024 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,025 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $620.24 · official $620.27 (match) · 1583 history records