Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f38…6309
crypto · 1044 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$67 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$67 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses905 / 139
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1044 / 1044
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day181.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1044 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$67
14 days+$67
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$67
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1044 +1.2% -8.5% 87% 36% -8.3%
≤30d 1044 +1.2% -8.5% 87% 36% -8.3%
≤90d 1044 +1.2% -8.5% 87% 36% -8.3%
all 1044 +1.2% -8.5% 87% 36% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover181.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 36% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 11% -17.1%
15% -25.2% 3% -25.1%
20% -32.6% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2096 history records