Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f37…6095 crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$213 (-15%) realized −$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%51W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$100
14 days−$145
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$201
other 6% −$52
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.9% -18.4% 56% 44% -32.3%
≤30d 86 -18.7% -26.4% 59% 38% -25.3%
≤90d 86 -18.7% -26.4% 59% 38% -25.3%
all 86 -18.7% -26.4% 59% 38% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 38% -25.3%
10% -33.5% 27% -32.4%
15% -39.9% 20% -38.9%
20% -45.8% 14% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses51 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage22d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$14 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$24 +76%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$5 +13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $30 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 08 $62 +$32 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $46 +$21 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$19 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 05 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 05 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $46 +$11 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $24 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $32 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $31 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $32 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $29 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records