Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4F 0x4f36…ba8c other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$983 (-15%) realized −$762 · open −$221
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$214
7 days−$1,835
14 days−$1,835
30 days−$1,835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$821
crypto 15% −$123
sports 10% −$285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -56.3% -60.5% 25% 25% -69.8%
≤30d 28 -56.3% -60.5% 25% 25% -69.8%
≤90d 36 -54.5% -58.9% 25% 25% -59.7%
all 54 -13.7% -21.9% 44% 41% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 41% -24.7%
10% -29.4% 37% -31.9%
15% -36.2% 33% -38.5%
20% -42.5% 28% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$95 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$762
Unrealized−$221
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 30
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage142d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 20¢ $312 $91 −$221 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $117 −$56 -48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$93 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-31? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Jun 16 $35 +$42 +121%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 16 $425 −$383 -90%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Rockets vs. Heat Jun 16 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 16 $271 −$271 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Jun 16 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$98 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 +$48 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$34 +129%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $520 −$340 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-02-18? Apr 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Apr 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 14 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $50 −$19 -38%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $275 +$216 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 11 $30 +$47 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 11 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 11 $200 +$4 +2%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $340 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 10 $40 +$26 +65%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 10 $55 +$73 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 09 $50 +$28 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 09 $16 −$11 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 09 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 09 $40 +$151 +378%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 09 $60 +$83 +138%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 09 $198 −$134 -68%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $300 +$250 +83%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $500 +$361 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $315 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $56 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $58 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $61 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $295 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY 16¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $301 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $203 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $54 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $76 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 14¢ $4 13d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $200 60d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $180 66d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $520 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $20 67d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $70 67d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $31 67d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.81 · official $90.81 (match) · 119 history records