Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f34…7d7e crypto 1501 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,068 (-51%) realized −$2,046 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%689W / 808L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$53
14 days+$46
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$241
sports 3% +$4
world 1% −$18
other 1% −$7
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 +8.5% -1.8% 74% 74% -3.4%
≤30d 438 +0.8% -8.8% 61% 61% -8.3%
≤90d 1497 -5.6% -14.6% 46% 46% -14.9%
all 1497 -5.6% -14.6% 46% 46% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 46% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 44% -23.1%
15% -30.2% 42% -30.5%
20% -37.1% 36% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$2,046
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses689 / 808
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1497 / 1501
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1497 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 76¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+31%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-91%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Gro Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$3 -25%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Second half draw? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Egypt to win the second half? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 43m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.26 · official $6.21 (match) · 3500 history records