Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:31:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4F 0x4f31…d7e9 sports 1566 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%758W / 801L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$18
other 12% −$14
world 0% +$5
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -4.4% -13.5% 45% 45% -10.0%
≤30d 901 -19.0% -26.7% 39% 39% -25.9%
≤90d 1559 -0.9% -10.3% 49% 48% -10.8%
all 1559 -0.9% -10.3% 49% 48% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 48% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 48% -19.3%
15% -26.7% 46% -27.1%
20% -33.9% 42% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses758 / 801
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1559 / 1566
History coverage72d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1559 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brasov: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Franco Roncadelli Franco Roncadelli 44¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+127%)
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet Arthur Rinderknech 57¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Brasov: Henri Squire vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Henri Squire 52¢ 61¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Wimbledon WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Lilli Tagger Lanlana Tararudee 45¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng Katerina Siniakova 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Troyes: Cosme de Ravel vs Marat Sharipov Marat Sharipov 44¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel Claire Liu 59¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 311 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Jun 29 $1 +$1 +67%
Wimbledon WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Wimbledon WTA: Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Wimbledon WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $2 +$1 +67%
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Filip Jeff Planinsek Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Ayana Akli Jun 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Keshav Chopra vs Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar Jun 28 $2 −$2 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Duru Soke Jun 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +105%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $1 +$2 +152%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 +$1 +73%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Wimbledon WTA: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Katie Swan Jun 27 $1 $0 -9%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 27 $1 $0 -12%
Wimbledon ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Quentin Halys Jun 27 $1 $0 -1%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $1 +$2 +188%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $1 +$2 +158%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +165%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $2 +$1 +51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +238%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva Jun 26 $2 +$1 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +62%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Han Shi Jun 26 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -6%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $1 +$1 +73%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +129%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +250%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $2 +$1 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Troyes: Cosme de Ravel vs Marat Sharipov BUY Marat Sharipov 44¢ $1 3m
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Katerina Siniakova 58¢ $1 14m
Wimbledon WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Lilli Tagger BUY Lanlana Tararudee 45¢ $1 44m
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Claire Liu 59¢ $1 59m
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Arthur Rinderknech 57¢ $2 1h
Brasov: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Franco Roncadelli 44¢ $1 6h
Brasov: Henri Squire vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly BUY Henri Squire 52¢ $1 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 59¢ $1 6h
Wimbledon WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Elisabetta Cocciaretto 42¢ $1 7h
Wimbledon WTA: Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Ann Li 44¢ $1 7h
Wimbledon WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva BUY Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 43¢ $1 7h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 54¢ $1 7h
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Filip Jeff Planinsek BUY Filip Jeff Planinsek 38¢ $1 24h
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Ayana Akli BUY Amelia Honer 53¢ $1 25h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 35¢ $1 25h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 25h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 25h
ITF Kayseri: Keshav Chopra vs Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar BUY Keshav Chopra 66¢ $2 31h
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Duru Soke BUY Alana Subasic 53¢ $1 32h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $1 35h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 36h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 37h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 39h
Wimbledon WTA: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Katie Swan SELL Katie Swan 48¢ $1 40h
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar SELL Camilo Ugo Carabelli 48¢ $1 40h
Wimbledon ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Quentin Halys SELL Quentin Halys 54¢ $1 40h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Ghana 57¢ $1 40h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 43¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.60 · official $9.60 (match) · 3000 history records