Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4F 0x4f30…fd82 weather 54 markets active 5d ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate49%26W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days+$41
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 44% +$35
world 30% −$40
other 15% +$27
politics 7% −$26
tech 3% +$20
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +16.6% +5.5% 45% 45% -9.1%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 38% -4.9%
≤90d 37 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 38% -6.5%
all 53 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 30% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 30% -8.9%
10% -20.1% 17% -17.6%
15% -27.8% 9% -25.6%
20% -34.9% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage97d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $175 $191 +$16 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $27 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $17 +$6 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $118 +$18 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$30 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $48 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $169 +$39 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 −$14 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $117 −$79 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $246 +$32 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $131 +$9 +7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $85 +$37 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 −$23 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$7 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $106 +$15 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$8 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 10? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $101 +$20 +20%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet? May 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $6 +$4 +70%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 12 $147 +$15 +10%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 23, 2026? Mar 24 $80 +$10 +13%
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 24 $84 +$22 +26%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 202 Mar 24 $152 −$44 -29%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Mar 23 $31 −$2 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 23 $30 −$2 -8%
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 21 $4 −$1 -33%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Mar 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? Mar 18 $21 −$7 -36%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 18 $15 +$5 +33%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Mar 17 $41 −$2 -5%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Mar 17 $80 −$26 -33%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Mar 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $8 +$2 +32%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 16 $162 −$21 -13%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Mar 15 $8 −$1 -16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 15 $40 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? Mar 15 $40 +$3 +6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Mar 14 $20 −$7 -35%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $4 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $36 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $37 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.02 · official $191.02 (match) · 213 history records