Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f2f…ca1b crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23 (-16%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%28W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day103.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$12
sports 11% +$8
other 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -12.5% -20.8% 55% 49% -14.5%
≤30d 51 -12.5% -20.8% 55% 49% -14.5%
≤90d 51 -12.5% -20.8% 55% 49% -14.5%
all 51 -12.5% -20.8% 55% 49% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 49% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 33% -22.7%
15% -35.3% 27% -30.2%
20% -41.7% 24% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses28 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day103.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$3 +124%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$7 +139%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records