Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4F 0x4f2c…9d16 sports 532 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,141 (-7%) realized −$1,080 · open −$61
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%199W / 331L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$178est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$243
14 days−$70
30 days−$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,264
other 18% −$79
crypto 0% +$47
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -18.2% -26.0% 34% 34% -20.5%
≤30d 163 -6.9% -15.8% 37% 37% -17.4%
≤90d 386 -10.5% -19.0% 37% 37% -16.8%
all 530 -9.3% -17.9% 38% 37% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 37% -16.4%
10% -25.8% 37% -24.4%
15% -32.9% 37% -31.7%
20% -39.5% 37% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$29 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$1,080
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses199 / 331
Est. fees paid−$178
Open positions2
Markets (closed)530 / 532
History coverage115d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 40¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Under 35¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 325 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $98 +$102 +104%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $49 −$48 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $98 +$99 +101%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$4 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 −$49 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$43 +85%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 +$44 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $41 +$69 +170%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $79 +$100 +126%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $102 −$23 -22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $22 −$21 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 +$28 +136%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$51 +101%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $30 +$30 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $35 +$56 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$99 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $29 −$29 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $49 +$66 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $60 −$59 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $53 −$52 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $57 +$55 +97%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $48 +$60 +127%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $59 −$58 -98%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $40 −$39 -98%
England vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
France vs. Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $30 −$29 -98%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $18 −$18 -98%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $37 +$107 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $51 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $49 3h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $49 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $98 25h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $98 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $30 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $50 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $40 28h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $94 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $36 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $14 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $51 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $50 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $44 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $110 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $41 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $179 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $79 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $79 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $49 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $49 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 36¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.29 · official $39.29 (match) · 771 history records