Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f2b…f448 other 454 markets active 222d ago coverage 169d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 168d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$68,471 (+3%) realized +$68,471 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -89% what you keep after slip
Net edge-89%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate13%73W / 475L
Whale WR1%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,447per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 169d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$1,285,789
economics 18% −$353,558
other 12% −$238,898
crypto 1% −$23,182
sports 1% −$14,318
tech 1% −$13,469
culture 0% −$8,558
weather 0% −$3,453
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-87.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -26.5% -33.5% 6% 6% -98.5%
≤30d 35 -26.5% -33.5% 6% 6% -98.5%
≤90d 35 -26.5% -33.5% 6% 6% -98.5%
all 485 -85.9% -87.2% 2% 1% -97.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -87.2% 1% -97.1%
10% ← realistic here -88.4% 1% -97.4%
15% -89.5% 1% -97.6%
20% -90.6% 1% -97.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 1% (≥$840) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -86% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4,088 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$68,471
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses73 / 475
Whale WR (big bets)1%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)548 / 454
History coverage169d ⚠
Avg bet$4,447
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 548 Trades
no open positions (103 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Emil Boc? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Denis Shapovalov win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
US recession in 2025? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be greater th Jun 29 $0 +$1 —%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of SOS? Jun 29 $-1 +$1 —%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ionuț Dumitru? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Călin Georgescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 29 $-3 +$3 —%
Opensea token market cap (FDV) $1-3b one day after launch? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Ritchie Torres win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 29 $-11 +$11 —%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 29 $0 +$5 +344127%
Will Xavier Edwards lead the MLB in steals? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 29 $-3 +$3 —%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will George Tuță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 29 $-3 +$3 —%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 29 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 29 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 29 $-11 +$11 —%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Karen Khachanov win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will another party win the Canadian election? Jun 29 $-92 +$92 —%
Will Cameron Norrie win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Harold Mayne-Nicholls win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 29 $-3 +$3 —%
Will Pope Leo visit Spain first? Jun 29 $-6 +$6 —%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 29 $-3 +$3 —%
Will Yuki Tsunoda be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 29 $1 −$9 -1343%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Raluca Turcan? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 29 $-1 +$1 —%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of AUR? Jun 29 $-1 +$1 —%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 29 $-3 +$3 —%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Delia Velculescu? Jun 29 $0 +$6 —%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will the Conservative Party win between 35% and 38% of the vote in the Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 29 $-1 +$1 —%
Will Ronnie Brunswijk be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 29 $-2 +$2 —%
Will the Conservative Party win 47% or more of the vote in the 2025 Ca Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Andrey Rublev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 222d
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 8¢ $32 223d
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 223d
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 223d
Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 223d
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 223d
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 223d
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 3¢ $27 285d
Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 285d
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 300d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 304d
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 0¢ $17 336d
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 336d
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 336d
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 337d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 337d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $12 337d
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 15¢ $44 337d
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 372d
Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 373d
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 374d
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be greater th SELL Yes 1¢ $0 374d
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 374d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu? SELL Yes 24¢ $113 374d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Delia Velculescu? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 374d
Will Claudiu Târziu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 3¢ $43 375d
Will Maya Parbhoe be the next president of Suriname after the election SELL Yes 0¢ $0 375d
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 16 SELL Yes 0¢ $1 375d
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be less than SELL Yes 0¢ $1 375d
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 375d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.98 · official $2.98 (match) · 3500 history records