Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f2b…56c9 other 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$575 (-2%) realized −$557 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate85%140W / 24L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% +$1
other 21% +$23
politics 20% −$66
world 13% −$448
economics 8% −$13
culture 5% +$2
tech 3% −$77
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 41 -4.6% -13.7% 90% 0% -9.1%
all 164 -3.7% -12.8% 85% 1% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 1% -10.9%
10% -21.2% 1% -19.4%
15% -28.8% 0% -27.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$51 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$557
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses140 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)164 / 166
History coverage238d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Yes 13¢ $18 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 27 $18 +$1 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 27 $195 +$3 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 05 $210 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? May 31 $213 +$2 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 25 $214 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $811 +$5 +1%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 11 $219 +$1 +1%
Will JD Vance say "Ukraine" in Des Moines? May 08 $0 $0 -85%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election May 06 $1 $0 -38%
Will Marco Rubio say "Filibuster" during press briefing today? May 06 $325 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio say "Pentagon" during press briefing today? May 06 $264 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio say "Interview" during press briefing today? May 06 $35 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio say "Baby" or "Wedding" during press briefing today? May 06 $106 +$10 +10%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 06 $18 $0 +2%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 04 $1,206 +$3 +0%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Bitcoin" this week? May 03 $495 +$3 +1%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "OpenAI" or "ChatGPT" this week? May 03 $99 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 02 $109 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 25 $108 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 22 $215 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 19 $107 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Stupid" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 10 $112 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 09 $108 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 07 $110 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 05 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Apr 05 $6 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.05 by March 31? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 29 $105 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 25 $108 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 25 $35 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 25 $2,205 +$4 +0%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China by November 30? Mar 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 16? Mar 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $480–500 in 2025? Mar 20 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 19 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $198 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $195 4d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $18 4d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 16d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $2 21d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $207 26d
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 27d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? BUY Yes $1 28d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $212 32d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes $6 32d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $68 34d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $140 34d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 34d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $189 35d
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 35d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 36d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $188 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 98¢ $10 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 36d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 40d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 40d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $117 40d
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? BUY No 94¢ $6 40d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 40d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $192 41d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $10 42d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 42d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.43 · official $5.43 (match) · 538 history records