Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f29…7a7e sports 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3458 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$73,623 (+8%) realized +$188,561 · open −$114,938
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%25W / 289L
Whale WR13%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13,313per market
Trades / day3458.0pace
Fees−$9,676est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$349,585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$144,326
other 43% −$51,838
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3458 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-59.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 314 -55.4% -59.7% 8% 7% -71.6%
≤30d 314 -55.4% -59.7% 8% 7% -71.6%
≤90d 314 -55.4% -59.7% 8% 7% -71.6%
all 314 -55.4% -59.7% 8% 7% -71.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3458.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.7% 7% -71.6%
10% -63.5% 7% -74.3%
15% ← realistic here -67.0% 6% -76.8%
20% -70.3% 6% -79.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 13% (≥$4,599) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
37.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10,044 vs −$6,063 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$349,585
Realized+$188,561
Unrealized−$114,938
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses25 / 289
Whale WR (big bets)13%
Est. fees paid−$9,676
Open positions37
Markets (closed)314 / 66
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$13,313
Trades / day3458.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? No 74¢ 100¢ $47,302 $63,720 +$16,418 (+35%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? No 63¢ 100¢ $37,715 $60,182 +$22,466 (+60%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $14,186 $36,322 +$22,136 (+156%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 66¢ 86¢ $25,297 $33,347 +$8,050 (+32%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 100¢ $12,061 $22,977 +$10,915 (+90%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Colorado Rockies 48¢ 100¢ $10,027 $20,912 +$10,885 (+109%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $12,079 $14,204 +$2,126 (+18%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 43¢ 52¢ $11,235 $13,717 +$2,482 (+22%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? No 46¢ 100¢ $5,978 $13,078 +$7,101 (+119%)
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Miami Marlins 49¢ 96¢ $6,402 $12,661 +$6,259 (+98%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ 58¢ $6,250 $8,310 +$2,060 (+33%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Chicago Cubs 30¢ 100¢ $2,141 $7,216 +$5,075 (+237%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 49¢ 51¢ $5,000 $5,204 +$204 (+4%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 57¢ 74¢ $4,044 $5,183 +$1,139 (+28%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 49¢ 56¢ $3,591 $4,067 +$476 (+13%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 56¢ 48¢ $4,639 $3,934 −$704 (-15%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 57¢ 47¢ $3,750 $3,092 −$658 (-18%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 73¢ 100¢ $1,930 $2,639 +$709 (+37%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 49¢ 44¢ $2,713 $2,464 −$249 (-9%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 100¢ $1,010 $2,322 +$1,313 (+130%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 50¢ 50¢ $2,021 $2,021 +$0 (+0%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 44¢ 52¢ $1,672 $1,979 +$307 (+18%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 74¢ 100¢ $1,377 $1,852 +$475 (+34%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 80¢ 100¢ $1,303 $1,623 +$320 (+25%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 41¢ 100¢ $565 $1,391 +$826 (+146%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 284 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $2,110 −$3,633 -172%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $11,251 −$11,251 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $9,861 −$9,373 -95%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $4,613 −$6,416 -139%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $235 −$350 -149%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $13,419 −$16,345 -122%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 28 $47,137 −$48,857 -104%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $720 −$720 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 28 $217 −$217 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 28 $3,323 −$3,323 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $3,154 −$3,154 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $838 −$838 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 28 $3,198 −$3,849 -120%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 28 $12,122 −$12,120 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 28 $2,620 −$2,610 -100%
Will National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Petrojet SC end in a draw? Jun 28 $652 −$652 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 28 $724 −$234 -32%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 28 $1,576 −$1,576 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 28 $15,027 −$16,353 -109%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $1,022 −$1,022 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $76 −$76 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $5,371 −$5,372 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Jun 28 $1,022 −$1,028 -101%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $12,657 −$12,547 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 28 $38,963 −$69,747 -179%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $10,242 −$10,242 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? Jun 28 $5,595 −$5,875 -105%
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-05-17? Jun 28 $1,339 −$1,339 -100%
Parma: Kaja Juvan vs Moyuka Uchijima Jun 28 $4,729 −$4,731 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $945 −$1,049 -111%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $17 −$14 -79%
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. CSD Colo-Colo end in a draw? Jun 28 $270 −$270 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $1,619 −$1,619 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $6,145 −$6,145 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 28 $3,512 −$5,536 -158%
Paris: Maddison Inglis vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 28 $2,287 −$2,312 -101%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $3,218 −$3,218 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $14,157 −$14,611 -103%
Will Livingston FC vs. Kilmarnock FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $4,262 −$3,938 -92%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $2,649 −$2,655 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 28 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 28 $206 −$388 -189%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 28 $83,599 −$77,500 -93%
Will OGC Nice vs. FC Metz end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 −$6 -177%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $19,839 −$20,540 -104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $98 1m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 53¢ $556 2m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $5 4m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 56¢ $354 4m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $100 4m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 71¢ $61 6m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 69¢ $4 7m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 88¢ $13 8m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 87¢ $18 8m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $75 8m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 69¢ $953 9m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 19¢ $226 9m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Washington Nationals 61¢ $73 9m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 81¢ $2,500 10m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 81¢ $1,215 11m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 81¢ $1,285 11m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Seattle Mariners 19¢ $646 11m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 25¢ $0 12m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 67¢ $1 13m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Seattle Mariners 26¢ $3 13m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Seattle Mariners 26¢ $8 13m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Seattle Mariners 32¢ $4 13m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 35¢ $647 13m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 64¢ $1 14m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 79¢ $20 14m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 58¢ $58 14m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 35¢ $22 15m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 35¢ $1 15m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 31¢ $3 15m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 35¢ $1 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349,585.04 · official $349,974.24 (match) · 3500 history records