Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f28…d2d6 other 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%62W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$63
sports 40% −$90
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.2% -28.7% 38% 38% +19.5%
≤30d 15 -41.2% -46.8% 27% 27% -25.5%
≤90d 90 -16.2% -24.2% 33% 33% -12.4%
all 203 -13.2% -21.5% 31% 31% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 31% -12.2%
10% -29.0% 31% -20.6%
15% -35.8% 31% -28.3%
20% -42.1% 30% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses62 / 141
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)203 / 203
History coverage226d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 203 Trades
no open positions (131 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +112%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $5 +$8 +152%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score May 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score May 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will US Lecce vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 09 $5 +$7 +139%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $5 +$5 +96%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Apr 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $5 +$5 +101%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $5 +$7 +140%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 22 $5 +$13 +262%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $11 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 19d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 22d
Will Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 23d
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 23d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 26d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 39¢ $5 27d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 29d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 30d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 47¢ $5 30d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 31d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? BUY No 50¢ $5 33d
Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $5 34d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 35d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 36d
Will US Lecce vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 37d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 37d
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $12 37d
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 37d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $10 37d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 37d
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 283 history records