Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f23…90db
other · 199 markets active 11h ago
0.0score
−$3,155 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,122 · open −$5,237
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50,710
Realized−$4,122
Unrealized−$5,237
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses111 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions38
Markets (closed)179 / 199
History coverage104d
Avg bet$2,507
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 38 History 179 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$699
7 days−$699
14 days−$1,410
30 days−$2,500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 99¢ 94¢ $22,921 $21,624 −$1,296 (-6%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 77¢ 89¢ $9,452 $10,963 +$1,511 (+16%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 79¢ 96¢ $3,987 $4,867 +$880 (+22%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 76¢ 89¢ $1,939 $2,268 +$329 (+17%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 80¢ $1,340 $1,610 +$270 (+20%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 61¢ 28¢ $3,423 $1,564 −$1,859 (-54%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $1,868 $1,168 −$701 (-37%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 50¢ 25¢ $2,248 $1,148 −$1,101 (-49%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 1¢ 79¢ $14 $790 +$776 (+5673%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $718 $765 +$47 (+6%)
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? No 83¢ 92¢ $629 $694 +$64 (+10%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 53¢ 14¢ $2,182 $594 −$1,587 (-73%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $745 $512 −$233 (-31%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $369 $354 −$14 (-4%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 32¢ 23¢ $433 $311 −$122 (-28%)
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $253 $276 +$22 (+9%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $518 $191 −$327 (-63%)
Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 66¢ 71¢ $155 $165 +$11 (+7%)
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $71 $137 +$67 (+95%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $900 $135 −$765 (-85%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 65¢ 20¢ $390 $117 −$273 (-70%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $255 $92 −$164 (-64%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $127 $75 −$52 (-41%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 34¢ 32¢ $64 $62 −$3 (-4%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $24 $49 +$26 (+108%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Jun 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 12 $116 −$77 -67%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$91 +982%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $79 +$3,918 +4932%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $210 −$194 -93%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $4,550 −$4,434 -98%
Will Dell Technologies (DELL) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $128 +$5 +4%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $169 +$182 +108%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $919 +$5 +1%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 100 and 200 hours without failur May 18 $2,978 +$38 +1%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? May 18 $6,463 +$105 +2%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 50 and 100 hours without failure May 18 $822 +$2 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $16,804 +$111 +1%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? May 15 $824 +$3 +0%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $173 −$173 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $787 +$8 +1%
Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $527 −$407 -77%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 13 $7,455 +$121 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $1,067 −$934 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 13? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $16,487 +$153 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 13 $7,765 +$200 +3%
Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2 May 11 $471 $0 +0%
Will the Labour Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2 May 11 $184 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 08 $7,699 +$73 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 08 $32,712 +$230 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $143 −$141 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $397 −$397 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? May 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 01 $168 +$143 +85%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $3,983 −$221 -6%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 30 $1,494 +$6 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 30 $11,718 +$714 +6%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 30 $5,002 +$28 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 30 $2,627 −$372 -14%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $96 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $1,867 +$4 +0%
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 30 $217 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $21 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? Apr 28 $791 −$790 -100%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Apr 26 $3,992 −$3,992 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% −$9,826
other 25% −$5,027
politics 19% −$87
weather 7% +$129
tech 4% +$5,660
sports 2% +$80
finance 1% +$503
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $2,100 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 12h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +80.3% +63.1% 17% 17% -87.5%
≤30d 27 +61.0% +45.6% 44% 11% -19.1%
≤90d 158 +2.4% -7.3% 61% 11% -11.6%
all 179 +1.1% -8.6% 62% 13% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 13% -11.5%
10% -17.3% 8% -19.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.3% 7% -27.7%
20% -32.6% 5% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50,709.79 · official $50,730.35 (match) · 3500 history records