Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f20…e05b sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+10%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate68%27W / 13L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$1
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$6
crypto 21% +$3
other 7% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +5.0% -5.0% 75% 50% -7.9%
≤30d 40 +1.3% -8.4% 68% 50% -1.0%
≤90d 40 +1.3% -8.4% 68% 50% -1.0%
all 40 +1.3% -8.4% 68% 50% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 50% -1.0%
10% -17.1% 42% -10.5%
15% -25.1% 32% -19.1%
20% -32.5% 30% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses27 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage11d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Fenerbahce 68¢ 71¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $15 +$3 +18%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +95%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$3 -29%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$6 +58%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +77%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $13 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +22%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 05 $1 $0 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 05 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Wil BUY 29¢ $5 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $7 18h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $5 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 18¢ $5 20h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 68¢ $9 20h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas SELL Fenerbahce 100¢ $18 21h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 84¢ $15 2d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 58¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag BUY 12¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 28¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $1 4d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $8 4d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 64¢ $5 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 63¢ $3 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 72¢ $5 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 77¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $22 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 92¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 50¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL BIG 55¢ $3 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 50¢ $3 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 49¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 39¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.36 · official $14.36 · 81 history records