Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4f20…81b5 sports 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$892 (-2%) realized −$891 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate74%81W / 29L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$38
14 days−$400
30 days−$1,038
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$14
crypto 26% +$13
sports 22% −$922
culture 11% −$5
politics 6% $0
economics 5% −$3
world 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.1% -15.0% 86% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 32 -15.9% -23.9% 75% 6% -13.6%
≤90d 62 -14.7% -22.8% 77% 8% -11.2%
all 110 -8.7% -17.4% 74% 15% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 15% -10.7%
10% -25.3% 12% -19.2%
15% -32.5% 8% -27.0%
20% -39.2% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$55 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$891
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses81 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions4
Markets (closed)110 / 114
History coverage246d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 72¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 15? Jun 16 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $775 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $775 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $763 +$7 +1%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $707 +$3 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $111 −$49 -44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $517 −$427 -82%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $977 +$63 +6%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 09 $1,179 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $217 +$48 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $815 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1,010 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $198 −$198 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 2? Jun 04 $130 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 1? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 1? Jun 02 $153 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,312 +$1 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $523 +$105 +20%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,140 +$78 +7%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $141 −$32 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,210 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $154 −$152 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1,321 +$5 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $229 −$227 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $280 −$270 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 21? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 21? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 22 $400 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $88 −$81 -92%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $1,800 +$3 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1,877 +$142 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 17? May 18 $53 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 11-17? May 18 $1,554 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 17 $1,707 +$2 +0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $388 +$112 +29%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 14? May 15 $1,465 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $478 +$2 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $515 +$65 +13%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 13 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $110 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 38h
Will Solana reach $80 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $155 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $675 5d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $775 5d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 6d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $313 6d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $386 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 100¢ $167 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 100¢ $387 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 100¢ $92 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 89¢ $50 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $6 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 61¢ $61 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 17¢ $88 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 80¢ $80 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 85¢ $170 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 90¢ $180 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 87¢ $87 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 98¢ $49 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 98¢ $98 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 98¢ $37 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 98¢ $12 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 94¢ $188 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 98¢ $196 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 99¢ $100 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.26 · official $135.26 (match) · 341 history records