Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f1d…7e02 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$64 (-2%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -3.7% -12.8% 59% 53% -17.4%
≤30d 32 -3.7% -12.8% 59% 53% -17.4%
≤90d 32 -3.7% -12.8% 59% 53% -17.4%
all 32 -3.7% -12.8% 59% 53% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 53% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 44% -25.3%
15% -28.8% 44% -32.5%
20% -35.8% 44% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$74 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $43 +$33 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $90 +$51 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $174 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $271 −$204 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $66 +$59 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $241 +$35 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $75 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $76 −$74 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $78 −$63 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $67 +$58 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $207 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $213 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $141 +$108 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $131 −$127 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $46 +$28 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $67 +$58 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $153 +$93 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $143 −$139 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $54 +$38 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $298 −$175 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $76 +$47 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $75 −$60 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $139 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $61 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $72 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $69 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $66 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $69 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $39 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $43 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $76 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $14 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $76 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $74 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $66 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $75 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $46 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.00 · official $120.00 (match) · 73 history records