Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f1d…8de2
other · 922 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$144,511 +234%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$27,833 · open −$28,096
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,224
Realized−$27,833
Unrealized−$28,096
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses16 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions500
Markets (closed)164 / 922
Avg bet$67
Trades / day2507.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 500 History 164 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27,833
7 days−$27,833
14 days−$27,833
30 days−$27,833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 60¢ 60¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 39¢ 67¢ $44 $77 +$33 (+74%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 38¢ 32¢ $75 $63 −$12 (-16%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Over 33¢ 37¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31? Yes 48¢ 59¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+22%)
Will Northampton Saints win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? Yes 5¢ 36¢ $3 $22 +$19 (+656%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31? No 50¢ 52¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat? No 72¢ 82¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+14%)
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? No 96¢ 56¢ $32 $19 −$13 (-41%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No 71¢ 72¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? No 93¢ 93¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat? No 74¢ 59¢ $13 $11 −$3 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Yes 0¢ 64¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat? No 60¢ 38¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-36%)
Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+268%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? No 72¢ 73¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 72¢ 99¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+37%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 81¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+305%)
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 17¢ 48¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+185%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $250 $8 −$242 (-97%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $250 $8 −$242 (-97%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $250 $8 −$242 (-97%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $250 $8 −$242 (-97%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $250 $8 −$242 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $128 −$104 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +18%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $430 −$430 -100%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $418 −$418 -100%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $426 −$426 -100%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $425 −$425 -100%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $370 −$370 -100%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 12 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $429 −$429 -100%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $422 −$422 -100%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $429 −$429 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $553 −$531 -96%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 12 $420 −$344 -82%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 12 $418 −$418 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $713 −$713 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $94 −$92 -98%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $22 −$20 -91%
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? Jun 12 $223 +$15 +7%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $123 −$123 -100%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $331 −$331 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $312 −$292 -94%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $312 −$292 -94%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $332 −$331 -100%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $331 −$331 -100%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $331 −$331 -100%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $331 −$331 -100%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $331 −$331 -100%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $330 −$330 -100%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $326 −$326 -100%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $319 −$319 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $415 −$409 -99%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $434 −$434 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $419 −$414 -99%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $435 −$435 -100%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $434 −$434 -100%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $407 −$402 -99%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $436 −$436 -100%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $428 −$428 -100%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $433 −$433 -100%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $433 −$432 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $30 −$28 -92%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $42 −$29 -67%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 12 $31 −$29 -95%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 12 $468 −$463 -99%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 12 $477 −$470 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% −$35,828
tech 15% −$9,206
politics 9% −$5,476
economics 6% −$4,368
weather 6% −$213
sports 5% −$108
world 1% −$322
finance 1% −$306
culture 1% −$80
crypto 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $14 0m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $15 0m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $14 0m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $15 0m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $16 0m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 52¢ $6 7m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 44¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 99¢ $12 8m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 86¢ $10 8m
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 97¢ $12 8m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $11 8m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 89¢ $11 8m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 100¢ $12 8m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 94¢ $11 8m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 89¢ $11 8m
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 99¢ $12 8m
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 90¢ $11 8m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 98¢ $12 8m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 96¢ $12 8m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 96¢ $12 8m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 85¢ $10 8m
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 90¢ $11 8m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 93¢ $11 8m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 35¢ $4 8m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 79¢ $10 8m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 97¢ $12 8m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 89¢ $11 8m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $12 10m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $13 10m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $29 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-78.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -76.0% -78.3% 10% 2% -95.9%
≤30d 164 -76.0% -78.3% 10% 2% -95.9%
≤90d 164 -76.0% -78.3% 10% 2% -95.9%
all 164 -76.0% -78.3% 10% 2% -95.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2507.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -78.3% 2% -95.9%
10% ← realistic here -80.4% 2% -96.3%
15% -82.3% 1% -96.6%
20% -84.0% 1% -97.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,223.79 · official $1,234.76 (match) · 3500 history records