Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f1d…1ed6 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$48 (+8%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$57
world 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +55.6% +40.8% 38% 38% -12.7%
≤30d 29 +26.4% +14.4% 31% 31% -20.8%
≤90d 29 +26.4% +14.4% 31% 31% -20.8%
all 29 +26.4% +14.4% 31% 31% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 31% -20.8%
10% +3.4% 31% -28.4%
15% -6.6% 28% -35.3%
20% -15.7% 28% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +87% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$18 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage9d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $57 +$58 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$95 +1773%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$9 +178%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$15 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 100¢ $100 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records