Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f1b…caa7 world 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1
politics 20% +$2
other 19% −$2
sports 12% −$10
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -9.9% 38% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 23 -1.2% -10.7% 35% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 66 -2.8% -12.0% 38% 2% -9.6%
all 75 -4.7% -13.8% 37% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 4% -9.9%
10% -22.0% 3% -18.5%
15% -29.6% 3% -26.4%
20% -36.5% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 47
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage524d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $42 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $129 −$3 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $8 −$1 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $107 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $6 $0 -8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $68 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $8 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $63 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $47 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $71 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $36 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $2 $0 -4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $134 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $33 $0 -1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $43 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $117 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $3 $0 -5%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 09 $83 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 04 $113 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 13m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $1 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $33 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $34 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $36 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $36 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $7 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $8 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $1 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $3 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $5 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $13 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 329 history records