Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f1b…9876 crypto 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,305 (-30%) realized −$5,484 · open −$821
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%27W / 62L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,935
7 days−$2,974
14 days−$2,967
30 days−$2,967
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$4,814
sports 23% −$268
world 10% −$1,564
crypto 9% −$764
economics 3% −$123
tech 1% −$58
politics 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -7.7% -16.5% 33% 29% -29.5%
≤30d 44 -7.7% -16.5% 34% 30% -29.4%
≤90d 44 -7.7% -16.5% 34% 30% -29.4%
all 89 -19.1% -26.8% 30% 27% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 27% -40.4%
10% -33.8% 24% -46.1%
15% -40.2% 22% -51.3%
20% -46.1% 19% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$176 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$5,484
Unrealized−$821
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses27 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 93
History coverage594d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 56¢ 10¢ $1,000 $179 −$821 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$90 -44%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $79 −$57 -72%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $506 +$288 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$513 +101%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 +$94 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $101 +$43 +42%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$34 -34%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $308 −$35 -11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $308 −$33 -11%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $607 +$98 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,990 −$1,969 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $403 −$330 -82%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$63 -63%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $102 −$18 -17%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 +$65 +213%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$25 -80%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $579 +$351 +61%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $297 −$30 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,522 −$1,522 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 −$50 -24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $307 −$294 -96%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$46 -90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $605 −$119 -20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,289 +$867 +67%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$200 +649%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $531 +$580 +109%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 +$11 +11%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $54 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $51 −$35 -69%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 −$34 -68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States vs. Paraguay end Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $95 −$26 -28%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $142 +$3 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $306 +$389 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 56¢ $304 47m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 56¢ $709 48m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $115 56m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $22 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $79 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $506 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $299 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 13h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 26h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 34h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 34h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 34h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $43 35h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $68 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $273 35h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $274 35h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $705 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 35h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 14¢ $73 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.57 · official $178.57 (match) · 267 history records