Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f1b…bc10 sports 484 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$155 (-1%) realized −$156 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%272W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day77.1pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$70
14 days−$0
30 days−$678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$397
other 9% +$47
world 2% $0
tech 1% +$49
culture 1% −$28
politics 1% −$6
weather 0% −$10
economics 0% −$3
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+62.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +277.3% +241.3% 53% 41% -29.9%
≤30d 367 +81.3% +64.1% 54% 38% -17.1%
≤90d 503 +79.4% +62.4% 54% 39% -12.3%
all 503 +79.4% +62.4% 54% 39% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +62.4% 39% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here +46.8% 32% -20.7%
15% +32.6% 24% -28.4%
20% +19.6% 17% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late +96% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses272 / 231
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions12
Markets (closed)503 / 484
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day77.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 88¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+126%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 74¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan? No 45¢ 77¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+71%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 92¢ 80¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine? No 54¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Tom Holland as Spider-Man? No 42¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+58%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat? No 72¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Yes 35¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 +$8 +1280%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$4 +980%
Will Trump say "Heritage" or "Wealth" during Pennsylvania events on De Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$2 +711%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - Jun 17 $0 −$5 -3185%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$1 +805%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$19 +16974%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -156%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$3 +3035%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Jun 17 $0 −$2 -785%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 −$1 -208%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 −$13 -3149%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 −$1 -411%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea Jun 17 $0 −$5 -15434%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$3 -563%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1788%
LoL: LYON vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 −$1 -388%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -147%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$1 +395%
Will EA say "Acquisition" during earnings call? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +4856%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -229%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Jun 17 $0 −$6 -2326%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$3 +12%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $22 +$3 +12%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $17 −$10 -62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $12 +$1 +10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $95 −$74 -77%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $22 +$3 +16%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $21 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +9%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $12 +$1 +8%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $38 −$31 -82%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $39 +$20 +51%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $9 +$2 +18%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $31 +$5 +17%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $32 −$5 -14%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $22 +$19 +86%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$13 +43%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $16 +$13 +81%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $21 −$2 -8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $56 +$3 +6%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $17 −$7 -39%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $11 +$1 +14%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$3 +59%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $21 +$2 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $29 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 48m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 69¢ $2 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 95¢ $2 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 95¢ $10 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 85¢ $10 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 89¢ $10 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 84¢ $11 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 94¢ $11 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 22¢ $6 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 42¢ $6 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 71¢ $11 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 91¢ $12 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $21 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 27¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 17¢ $3 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $1 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $1 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $4 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 57¢ $4 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 68¢ $4 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $4 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $15 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 31¢ $18 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $15 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $7 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 48¢ $4 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 78¢ $13 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 89¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.83 · official $19.12 · 3500 history records