Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f1a…bc89 sports 73 markets active 5h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,476 (-6%) realized −$24,476 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%40W / 29L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,824per market
Trades / day55.4pace
Fees−$6,674est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$713
7 days+$30,567
14 days−$23,780
30 days−$23,780
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$59,644
other 28% +$37,903
world 1% −$2,218
crypto 0% +$176
tech 0% +$4
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -0.1% -9.6% 59% 36% +6.5%
≤30d 69 +4.9% -5.1% 58% 38% -14.7%
≤90d 69 +4.9% -5.1% 58% 38% -14.7%
all 69 +4.9% -5.1% 58% 38% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 38% -14.7%
10% -14.2% 33% -22.8%
15% ← realistic here -22.5% 28% -30.3%
20% -30.1% 22% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$4,974) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,600 vs −$3,027 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24,476
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses40 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$6,674
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 73
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5,824
Trades / day55.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,521 −$71 -5%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,013 +$765 +76%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,021 +$779 +76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $1,021 −$386 -38%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $495 −$375 -76%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $2,024 −$310 -15%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $2,221 +$1,394 +63%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $996 +$76 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,259 −$116 -9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,164 −$1,330 -62%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $761 −$336 -44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,160 −$2,220 -43%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,107 +$762 +36%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $373 −$373 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $807 −$672 -83%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,066 −$1,066 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $422 +$383 +91%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,520 −$556 -36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,012 −$110 -11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $673 +$49 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2,800 +$197 +7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,006 −$437 -43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $221 −$178 -81%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $300 −$52 -17%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,021 −$470 -23%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $479 −$236 -49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $256 −$256 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $720 −$421 -58%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $203 −$160 -79%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $306 +$484 +158%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $773 +$566 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 +$167 +82%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $304 +$213 +70%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $254 +$213 +84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $290 +$71 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $151 +$72 +48%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $51 −$42 -82%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $862 +$78 +9%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13,100 +$622 +5%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $53,256 +$10,338 +19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15,083 +$2,297 +15%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,016 +$99 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 13 $102 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10,221 +$11,417 +112%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10,069 +$3,002 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 52¢ $2,992 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 52¢ $508 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $510 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 56¢ $507 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 52¢ $507 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $1,020 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $1,450 23h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 36¢ $636 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,521 27h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 56¢ $1,004 30h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 55¢ $17 30h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $1,013 31h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $1,021 31h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 13¢ $120 46h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $20 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $20 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $34 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $36 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ $48 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $168 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $168 47h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $1,713 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 94¢ $3,615 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $194 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $879 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 66¢ $1,071 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $1,144 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 45¢ $1,143 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,259 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $834 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $5,950.99 · 475 history records