Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f19…77e3 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$253 (-21%) realized −$225 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$185
other 27% −$249
crypto 5% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -16.3% -24.3% 22% 22% -36.0%
≤30d 36 -16.3% -24.3% 22% 22% -36.0%
≤90d 36 -16.3% -24.3% 22% 22% -36.0%
all 36 -16.3% -24.3% 22% 22% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 22% -36.0%
10% -31.5% 22% -42.1%
15% -38.2% 22% -47.7%
20% -44.2% 22% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$29 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$225
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 28
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)36 / 42
History coverage3d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 48¢ $29 $69 +$40 (+138%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Hokori 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Hokori 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $19 +$20 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$131 +1234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $111 +$59 +54%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $39 +$51 +132%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$12 +121%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Steve Garcia win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$73 +238%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $54 +$127 +235%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $183 −$181 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner BUY Hokori 15¢ $10 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $40 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $9 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $10 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America BUY Hokori 14¢ $10 3h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Fnatic 99¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 4h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 48¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $19 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $170 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $91 6h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 16¢ $9 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 6h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 39¢ $20 6h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 23¢ $20 7h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY RisingRage 10¢ $23 7h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 16¢ $28 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.10 · official $69.10 (match) · 60 history records