Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:00:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f17…6001 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$374 (+9%) realized +$416 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$992now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$297
7 days+$407
14 days+$231
30 days+$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$560
other 43% −$211
crypto 4% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +9.8% -0.6% 43% 43% +4.2%
≤30d 23 +0.3% -9.3% 39% 39% -2.2%
≤90d 23 +0.3% -9.3% 39% 39% -2.2%
all 23 +0.3% -9.3% 39% 39% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 39% -2.2%
10% -17.9% 39% -11.6%
15% -25.9% 39% -20.1%
20% -33.1% 39% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$43 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$992
Realized+$416
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage9d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 82¢ $1,034 $992 −$42 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,374 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $116 −$13 -11%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $47 −$27 -57%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $253 +$181 +72%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions Jun 28 $82 +$190 +232%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $40 +$25 +62%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $42 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $67 −$23 -35%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Jun 28 $50 −$49 -98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $30 +$20 +64%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $60 +$68 +114%
Spread: England (-4.5) Jun 27 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $38 +$22 +57%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $46 +$125 +272%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $45 +$41 +91%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $138 +$161 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $99 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $80 −$79 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$97 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $1,038 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,036 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $55 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $72 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 28¢ $91 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $52 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $32 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $20 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $33 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $33 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $47 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $45 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $433 23h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $434 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $271 24h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions SELL UNO MILLE 100¢ $272 24h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions BUY UNO MILLE 32¢ $65 26h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 86¢ $65 26h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 52¢ $40 26h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $40 26h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $42 27h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 58¢ $253 27h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions BUY UNO MILLE 23¢ $17 27h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 40¢ $24 27h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 1 Winner SELL Acend 60¢ $41 27h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 62¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $991.93 · official $991.93 (match) · 64 history records