Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4F 0x4f16…553d sports 814 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,808 (+3%) realized +$5,829 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%376W / 415L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$2,242est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,786
7 days+$4,014
14 days+$8,193
30 days+$8,675
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$6,206
other 9% +$1,069
crypto 2% −$2,084
politics 1% −$328
world 0% +$394
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 175 +11.6% +1.0% 49% 49% -4.2%
≤30d 457 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 49% -3.8%
≤90d 617 -23.0% -30.3% 37% 37% -13.8%
all 791 -2.3% -11.6% 48% 46% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 46% -6.9%
10% -20.1% 44% -15.8%
15% -27.8% 39% -24.0%
20% -34.9% 33% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$183 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$3,165
Realized+$5,829
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses376 / 415
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$2,242
Open positions11
Markets (closed)791 / 814
History coverage234d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 791 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 59¢ 60¢ $600 $605 +$5 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 57¢ 56¢ $580 $575 −$5 (-1%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 29¢ 30¢ $300 $310 +$10 (+3%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 33¢ 30¢ $330 $305 −$25 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Walczaki 61¢ 62¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs FOKUS 56¢ 56¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Virtus.pro 53¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 65¢ 64¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Team Nemesis 56¢ 55¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B MASQ 33¢ 34¢ $188 $193 +$5 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 36¢ 36¢ $188 $191 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $205 +$918 +448%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1,866 +$1,341 +72%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $1,020 +$454 +44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,120 −$69 -6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $755 −$538 -71%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $1,065 −$528 -50%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $253 +$85 +34%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $203 −$32 -16%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $347 −$340 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $190 +$128 +67%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 19 $304 −$86 -28%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $405 −$60 -15%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $305 −$279 -92%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $406 −$385 -95%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $304 −$257 -85%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $508 +$509 +100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $405 +$273 +67%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $406 +$337 +83%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $675 +$536 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $426 +$596 +140%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $191 +$278 +145%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $359 −$165 -46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,312 −$82 -6%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $379 −$170 -45%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $329 −$120 -36%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $293 −$200 -68%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $188 −$185 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $154 −$19 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $908 −$77 -8%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 18 $152 −$10 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,414 −$1,394 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $303 +$173 +57%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $608 +$524 +86%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $708 +$403 +57%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $304 −$284 -93%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $152 −$143 -94%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $645 −$639 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $405 −$400 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $405 −$400 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $253 −$236 -93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $304 −$274 -90%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $454 −$444 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,458 −$1,434 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $405 +$262 +65%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $647 +$369 +57%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $203 +$232 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- BUY 31¢ $145 15m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 9¢ $205 18m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 8¢ $180 19m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 17¢ $205 20m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- BUY 31¢ $332 20m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 53¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 36¢ $192 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 56¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Walczaki 61¢ $202 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 56¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY MASQ 33¢ $192 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 65¢ $202 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $337 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 29¢ $306 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $607 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 57¢ $587 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 6¢ $180 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 31¢ $327 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 40¢ $417 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 13¢ $104 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 40¢ $726 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 20¢ $93 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $337 15h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $192 16h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 45¢ $875 16h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Vitality 54¢ $515 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 10¢ $243 20h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $507 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $1,144 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 18¢ $205 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,165.03 · official $4,207.42 · 2215 history records