Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f12…030a
crypto · 22 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$19 +39%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$4
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 3 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 13¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 39¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 36¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +208%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$45 +2197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +127%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 73% +$22
other 17% −$1
sports 4% −$1
tech 4% −$2
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $47 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $2 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 10h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $1 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 13¢ $2 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +73.9% +57.3% 37% 37% +20.9%
≤30d 19 +73.9% +57.3% 37% 37% +20.9%
≤90d 19 +73.9% +57.3% 37% 37% +20.9%
all 19 +73.9% +57.3% 37% 37% +20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +57.3% 37% +20.9%
10% ← realistic here +42.3% 37% +9.3%
15% +28.5% 32% -1.2%
20% +15.9% 32% -10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.04 · official $4.04 (match) · 37 history records