Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f12…effb sports 251 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$372 (-6%) realized −$395 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%122W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$196
14 days−$4
30 days−$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$462
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -9.1% -17.8% 47% 45% -18.1%
≤30d 241 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 48% -16.2%
≤90d 241 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 48% -16.2%
all 241 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 48% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 48% -16.2%
10% -18.4% 40% -24.3%
15% -26.3% 30% -31.6%
20% -33.5% 26% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$395
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses122 / 119
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions2
Markets (closed)241 / 251
History coverage24d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Phoenix Mercury 64¢ 100¢ $34 $53 +$19 (+56%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Minnesota Lynx 84¢ 100¢ $20 $23 +$4 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 24 $49 −$48 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $125 +$15 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann Jun 24 $14 +$21 +146%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch Jun 24 $20 $0 -1%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5 Jun 24 $14 +$17 +119%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 24 $10 +$12 +119%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 24 $25 +$16 +65%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $0 $0 +26%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $63 +$20 +32%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 23 $9 −$1 -10%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Mia Jun 23 $66 −$64 -98%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $30 −$25 -83%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $17 −$17 -99%
Altmaier vs. Kovacevic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $34 −$33 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $51 +$10 +20%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 179.5 Jun 23 $14 −$13 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 23 $11 +$8 +67%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 Jun 23 $0 $0 +30%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $68 −$7 -10%
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $27 −$27 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $33 −$3 -9%
Williams vs. Begu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $9 −$9 -99%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $27 −$27 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 22 $8 +$3 +32%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 22 $10 +$4 +38%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 22 $12 +$12 +97%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $85 +$10 +12%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $23 −$2 -9%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 21 $14 −$13 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 167.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5) Jun 21 $10 +$4 +38%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Se Jun 21 $70 +$18 +26%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $22 +$1 +6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $0 $0 +252%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $64 −$64 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. N Jun 21 $41 +$3 +8%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +28%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $13 +$7 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $34 $0 -1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $7 +$7 +97%
Johnson vs. Arango: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Cerundolo vs. Paul: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $27 −$27 -99%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 21 $7 +$2 +36%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $34 +$5 +15%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 21 $156 +$85 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 84¢ $20 27m
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 64¢ $34 28m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 44¢ $54 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 40¢ $51 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs BUY Yes 48¢ $49 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. BUY No 50¢ $5 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic SELL Teodora Kostovic 43¢ $95 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 46¢ $105 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 44¢ $20 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann BUY Bianca Andreescu 40¢ $14 9h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch SELL Dane Sweeny 74¢ $20 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch BUY Dane Sweeny 74¢ $20 11h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 60¢ $25 23h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 45¢ $14 23h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 45¢ $10 24h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 44¢ $25 25h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 79¢ $0 26h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $32 26h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $34 26h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) SELL Texas Rangers 26¢ $8 26h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 28¢ $9 26h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 59¢ $51 26h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 33¢ $29 26h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Mia BUY Yes 15¢ $66 27h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Benjamin Hassan 61¢ $3 32h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Miguel Damas 43¢ $26 32h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Liudmila Samsonova 51¢ $17 33h
Rus vs. Podrez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 67¢ $0 34h
Altmaier vs. Kovacevic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over $2 34h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Miguel Damas 52¢ $0 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.33 · official $83.76 · 437 history records