Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4F 0x4f12…143b weather 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$129 (+1%) realized +$130 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate73%66W / 24L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days−$250
14 days−$42
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% +$37
other 9% +$305
politics 6% +$10
sports 6% −$112
world 2% −$11
crypto 0% +$52
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 38% -26.7%
≤30d 33 -1.8% -11.1% 42% 42% -15.5%
≤90d 56 +10.2% -0.3% 61% 34% -9.7%
all 90 +14.1% +3.2% 73% 26% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 26% -8.4%
10% -6.7% 26% -17.1%
15% -15.7% 23% -25.1%
20% -23.9% 21% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$48 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses66 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 100
History coverage150d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $44 +$216 +485%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$29 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $45 −$44 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $44 +$21 +48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 21 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$52 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $237 +$163 +69%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$25 -80%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $31 +$77 +251%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$41 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 19 $31 +$95 +308%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 +$40 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$52 +73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +35%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 +$34 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$99 +98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$3 -41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 +$65 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $10 +$9 +86%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 10 $1,390 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 8? May 07 $20 +$1 +4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $51 +$33 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7? May 06 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 7? May 06 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? May 06 $10 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 6? May 05 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 5? May 05 $30 −$1 -3%
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha May 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 4? May 04 $15 $0 +2%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $10 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 03 $1 +$3 +262%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 16 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $4 +$6 +163%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $10 −$5 -44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $29 +$25 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $45 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Sene BUY 22¢ $44 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $45 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $44 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06 BUY 17¢ $30 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $44 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia wi BUY 13¢ $15 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $45 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $371 5d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 39¢ $527 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes $6 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $60 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $177 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 58¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $136 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $68 7d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $31 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 24¢ $31 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.61 · official $96.60 · 275 history records