Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4F 0x4f12…5143 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$269 (+39%) realized +$344 · open −$75
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +72% what you keep after slip
Net edge+72%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$79
14 days−$56
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$324
tech 32% −$12
world 20% −$123
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+71.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -55.1% -59.3% 25% 25% -52.0%
≤30d 13 -13.7% -21.9% 31% 31% +8.7%
≤90d 16 +89.6% +71.6% 44% 44% +47.9%
all 16 +89.6% +71.6% 44% 44% +47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +71.6% 44% +47.9%
10% +55.2% 38% +33.7%
15% +40.2% 38% +20.8%
20% +26.4% 38% +9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +234% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$20 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$344
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)16 / 28
History coverage31d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $25 +$13 +50%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -91%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $25 −$4 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $21 +$44 +212%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $51 +$180 +351%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 26 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$61 +1174%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$40 +79%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $25 +$88 +358%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $10 36h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I SELL Yes 10¢ $9 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 2d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on SELL Yes 22¢ $15 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 50¢ $25 3d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I SELL Yes 11¢ $17 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $40 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $50 3d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on SELL Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on SELL Yes 25¢ $33 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes $3 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 86¢ $38 4d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on BUY Yes $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes $3 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 88¢ $27 4d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o BUY Yes $2 4d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o BUY Yes $8 4d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close o BUY Yes 19¢ $21 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 56¢ $25 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 24¢ $21 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 60¢ $10 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 11¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.99 · official $158.04 (match) · 89 history records