trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -55.1% | -59.3% | 25% | 25% | -52.0% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -13.7% | -21.9% | 31% | 31% | +8.7% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +89.6% | +71.6% | 44% | 44% | +47.9% |
| all | 16 | +89.6% | +71.6% | 44% | 44% | +47.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +71.6% | 44% | +47.9% |
| 10% | +55.2% | 38% | +33.7% |
| 15% | +40.2% | 38% | +20.8% |
| 20% | +26.4% | 38% | +9.0% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 13 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on | Jun 12 | $43 | −$43 | -100% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on | Jun 12 | $25 | +$13 | +50% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$9 | -91% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $25 | +$4 | +17% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $25 | −$4 | -17% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $21 | +$44 | +212% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-09? | Jun 09 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? | Jun 01 | $51 | +$180 | +351% |
| World Championships: Canada vs. Finland | May 30 | $11 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? | May 26 | $50 | −$49 | -98% |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $5 | +$61 | +1174% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $50 | +$40 | +79% |
| Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $25 | +$88 | +358% |