Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f11…5ed0
crypto · 2210 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,290 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,971 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,971
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1082 / 501
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1583 / 2210
History coverage11d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day206.6
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1583 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,425
7 days−$382
14 days+$1,971
30 days+$1,971
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026? No 66¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $740 −$1,127 -152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$31 -307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$6,423
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1021 +12.0% +1.4% 58% 58% -9.1%
≤30d 1583 +32.4% +19.8% 68% 68% +6.3%
≤90d 1583 +32.4% +19.8% 68% 68% +6.3%
all 1583 +32.4% +19.8% 68% 68% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover206.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.8% 68% +6.3%
10% ← realistic here +8.4% 68% -3.9%
15% -2.1% 68% -13.2%
20% -11.7% 66% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records