Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4F 0x4f0f…2c14 crypto 1237 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-1%) realized −$29 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%649W / 586L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day123.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$44
14 days−$74
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 326 -12.1% -20.5% 54% 54% -18.1%
≤30d 1235 -10.1% -18.6% 53% 51% -14.4%
≤90d 1235 -10.1% -18.6% 53% 51% -14.4%
all 1235 -10.1% -18.6% 53% 51% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 51% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 42% -22.6%
15% -33.5% 37% -30.1%
20% -40.1% 28% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses649 / 586
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1235 / 1237
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day123.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3423 history records