trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 75% | 0% | -7.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +6.9% | -3.3% | 83% | 33% | +2.5% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +7.8% | -2.5% | 91% | 27% | +1.7% |
| all | 21 | -2.2% | -11.5% | 76% | 29% | +1.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -11.5% | 29% | +1.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -20.0% | 19% | -8.2% |
| 15% | -27.7% | 10% | -17.0% |
| 20% | -34.8% | 10% | -25.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $11,338 | $11,359 | +$21 (+0%) |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $8,339 | $8,397 | +$57 (+1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 79¢ | 90¢ | $3,950 | $4,525 | +$575 (+15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 19 | $4,137 | +$33 | +1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 19 | $7,565 | +$246 | +3% |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | Jun 17 | $1,420 | −$74 | -5% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $905 | +$54 | +6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 02 | $16,946 | +$3,835 | +23% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | Jun 01 | $2,523 | +$349 | +14% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | May 01 | $11,059 | +$354 | +3% |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30? | May 01 | $1,709 | +$107 | +6% |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Apr 01 | $1,001 | +$74 | +7% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | Apr 01 | $88 | +$5 | +6% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Apr 01 | $9,145 | +$2,005 | +22% |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Feb 10 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | Sep 01 | $53 | −$41 | -78% |
| Manchester City wins the Premier League? | May 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday? | May 10 | $20 | −$10 | -51% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | May 10 | $5 | +$2 | +31% |
| Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? | May 10 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? | May 10 | $10 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | May 10 | $10 | +$6 | +64% |
| Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? | May 10 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-25? | Jan 27 | $1 | +$1 | +92% |