Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f0b…e9d9
world · 65 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$14 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 60
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day70.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 2 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? No 10¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -3%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals Jun 12 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? Jun 12 $49 $0 +0%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 12 $8 $0 -2%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 12 $33 $0 -1%
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Dum Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Izquierdo Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -8%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 Jun 11 $31 $0 -1%
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit? Jun 11 $59 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 Jun 11 $60 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential Jun 11 $17 $0 -1%
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Jovic vs Anisimova Jun 11 $21 $0 -1%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Hanne Vandewinkel: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $21 $0 -1%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 11 $42 −$1 -1%
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 10 $16 $0 -1%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 10 $13 $0 -2%
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $66 −$1 -1%
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 Fren Jun 10 $8 $0 -1%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% −$5
other 29% −$4
politics 16% −$2
sports 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 33¢ $3 2m
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 33¢ $3 6m
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 21m
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 21m
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 23m
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 23m
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 51¢ $27 28m
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $4 29m
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $4 32m
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 52¢ $8 34m
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 46m
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals SELL No 62¢ $25 1h
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $25 1h
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $18 2h
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $18 2h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 2h
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $9 2h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? SELL No 42¢ $8 4h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? SELL No 42¢ $4 4h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? BUY No 42¢ $13 4h
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $18 4h
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $18 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 4h
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $27 4h
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 63 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 63 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 0% -10.5%
all 63 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover70.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 0% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.54 · official $0.50 (match) · 237 history records