Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f08…7647
crypto · 728 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,750 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,750 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,750
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses543 / 303
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)846 / 728
History coverage15d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day185.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 846 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,140
7 days−$4,363
14 days−$4,626
30 days−$3,750
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $201 $0 −$201 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $215 −$215 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$1,718
other 1% +$10
sports 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $12 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $46 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $20 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $18 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $41 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $19 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $50 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 388 -20.6% -28.1% 55% 28% -25.4%
≤30d 846 -7.3% -16.2% 64% 33% -14.9%
≤90d 846 -7.3% -16.2% 64% 33% -14.9%
all 846 -7.3% -16.2% 64% 33% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover185.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 33% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 22% -23.0%
15% -31.5% 15% -30.5%
20% -38.2% 10% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.36 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records