Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

4F 0x4f07…9036 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$7 (+6%) realized −$45 · open +$52

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-13.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+43.6%	+29.9%	100%	100%	+30.0%
≤30d	2	+43.6%	+29.9%	100%	100%	+30.0%
≤90d	3	-4.3%	-13.4%	67%	67%	-2.3%
all	3	-4.3%	-13.4%	67%	67%	-2.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.4%	67%	-2.3%
10%	-21.7%	67%	-11.6%
15%	-29.2%	33%	-20.2%
20%	-36.2%	33%	-28.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.32 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage

Net worth$97

Realized−$45

Unrealized+$52

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage89d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	40¢	99¢	$30	$74	+$44 (+147%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$15	$23	+$8 (+52%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$30	+$7	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$30	+$19	+63%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?	Mar 25	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	40¢	$31	1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$15	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$30	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	99¢	$49	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	60¢	$30	6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?	BUY Yes	2¢	$20	89d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.94 · official $96.97 (match) · 7 history records