Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f05…bcba politics 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$2
other 26% +$2
politics 15% +$1
crypto 9% +$1
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 12 +0.3% -9.2% 42% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.2% 42% 0% -9.4%
all 41 -1.6% -10.9% 51% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -9.1%
10% -19.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage465d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 76¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $28 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Jul 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? May 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? Apr 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 21 $8 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $8 $0 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Apr 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 15 $13 $0 -1%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lee Zeldin be out as Administrator of the Environmental Protectio Apr 14 $1 $0 +17%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 13 $1 $0 -13%
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romani Apr 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $13 $0 -0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 06 $13 $0 +1%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 17 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $2 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $27 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $4 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $32 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $30 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $29 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $14 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $9 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $6 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $12 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $28 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $28 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $8 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $20 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $28 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $28 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.36 · official $27.36 (match) · 124 history records