Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f04…7098 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$68 (+2%) realized +$69 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days−$255
14 days−$59
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$271
politics 18% +$391
sports 15% −$218
world 12% +$178
crypto 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -8.1% -16.9% 56% 56% -32.1%
≤30d 26 +1.6% -8.1% 58% 58% -15.5%
≤90d 30 +0.3% -9.3% 57% 57% -14.3%
all 40 -3.6% -12.8% 58% 50% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 50% -7.9%
10% -21.2% 42% -16.7%
15% -28.8% 42% -24.8%
20% -35.8% 30% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$58 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage593d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$46 +91%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$32 -63%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$42 -82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$2 -4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$36 +70%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +44%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $109 +$49 +45%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $136 +$63 +46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $72 +$38 +54%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 02 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the e Apr 14 $223 −$11 -5%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 18 $200 +$20 +10%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $90 +$110 +121%
Espresso FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 07 $93 +$7 +8%
Espresso FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 14 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? Feb 11 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $110 −$105 -95%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $50 +$10 +21%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $399 +$290 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $50 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $247 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 7d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Haiti 64¢ $49 7d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 65¢ $51 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $51 8d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 68¢ $50 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.90 · official $148.90 (match) · 93 history records