Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:13:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4efe…813d sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$100
other 12% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -52.3% -56.8% 33% 33% -3.3%
≤30d 5 -65.9% -69.1% 20% 20% -28.9%
≤90d 22 -24.1% -31.3% 41% 36% -2.2%
all 34 -32.5% -38.9% 32% 29% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 29% -16.8%
10% -44.8% 29% -24.8%
15% -50.1% 18% -32.0%
20% -55.0% 15% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$24 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage204d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $133 $132 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $55 +$24 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $39 −$28 -73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $15 −$14 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $83 −$43 -52%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $72 −$13 -19%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $116 +$10 +8%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $31 −$6 -20%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $183 +$43 +23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $77 +$98 +128%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $53 −$28 -53%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $110 +$36 +33%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $33 −$22 -66%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $97 −$14 -15%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $39 +$9 +24%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $66 −$20 -30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $70 +$16 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $35 −$15 -44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 11 $51 +$29 +56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $88 +$14 +16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO1) Dec 03 $34 −$16 -46%
Will PARIVISION win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 03 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs G2 (BO1) Dec 03 $10 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1) Nov 29 $123 −$123 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest (BO1) Nov 29 $20 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FaZe (BO1) Nov 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO1) Nov 29 $36 −$6 -17%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs fnatic (BO1) Nov 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) Nov 28 $50 +$43 +85%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Imperial (BO3) Nov 27 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs FaZe (BO3) Nov 27 $95 +$80 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $45 20m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 64¢ $44 21m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $34 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $6 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 28¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 8¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $15 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $82 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $15 35h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $48 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla SELL MOUZ 8¢ $11 27d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 16¢ $5 27d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 21¢ $5 27d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 37¢ $3 27d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 35¢ $5 27d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 2¢ $1 27d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 34¢ $20 27d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo BUY GamerLegion 8¢ $15 33d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $6 37d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A SELL FaZe 7¢ $5 37d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FaZe 12¢ $10 37d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $7 37d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A SELL FaZe 11¢ $8 37d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FaZe 22¢ $16 37d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A SELL FaZe 19¢ $17 37d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $30 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.17 · official $186.17 (match) · 213 history records