Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4efa…f800 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$21
politics 36% −$17
economics 4% −$2
sports 3% +$66
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 117 -1.5% -10.9% 8% 6% -9.6%
all 129 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 9% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 4% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×9.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage112d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $326 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $342 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $286 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 05 $308 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $261 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $307 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $327 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $324 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $314 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $364 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $293 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $342 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $314 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $251 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $372 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 24 $331 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $258 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $566 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $355 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $348 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $363 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $350 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $302 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $272 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $266 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $230 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $314 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $295 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $321 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 10h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 10d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $160 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $160 28d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $135 34d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $135 36d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $326 41d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $326 42d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $331 42d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $331 42d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $342 43d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $342 43d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $286 43d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $286 43d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $294 43d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $295 44d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $308 44d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $308 44d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $275 44d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $275 44d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 45d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 45d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $307 45d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $307 46d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $327 46d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $327 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 384 history records