Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4E 0x4efa…6871 world 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$8 (+37%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +107% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +87% what you keep after slip
Net edge+87%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 232d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$2
other 32% −$7
world 23% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+87.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +400.4% +352.8% 100% 100% +352.8%
≤30d 1 +400.4% +352.8% 100% 100% +352.8%
≤90d 1 +400.4% +352.8% 100% 100% +352.8%
all 3 +107.0% +87.3% 67% 67% +53.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +87.3% 67% +53.1%
10% +69.3% 33% +38.5%
15% +53.0% 33% +25.1%
20% +38.0% 33% +12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +400% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +107% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage232d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 +$20 +400%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 30? Jan 31 $10 +$2 +20%
Ryan Reynolds & Blake Lively divorce in 2025? Oct 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $25 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 30? BUY No 83¢ $10 139d
Ryan Reynolds & Blake Lively divorce in 2025? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 231d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 5 history records