Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ef5…c3c8 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$184 (-9%) realized −$183 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days−$268
14 days−$201
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$261
sports 11% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.0% -13.2% 56% 56% -25.4%
≤30d 25 -6.9% -15.8% 52% 52% -18.9%
≤90d 25 -6.9% -15.8% 52% 52% -18.9%
all 25 -6.9% -15.8% 52% 52% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 52% -18.9%
10% -23.9% 48% -26.7%
15% -31.2% 48% -33.8%
20% -38.0% 36% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$69 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$183
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage11d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $36 +$40 +114%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $34 +$40 +118%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$13 +64%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 26 $30 −$12 -40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $284 −$280 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$105 +103%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $169 +$20 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$70 +69%
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -21%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $40 +$44 +112%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$60 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 6h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $76 7h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $36 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $73 25h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $34 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 27h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $19 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 31h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $25 46h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes $18 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $91 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $91 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 5d
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes $30 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $206 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $91 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $169 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $171 8d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.68 · official $48.68 (match) · 47 history records