Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4E 0x4ef4…b0a7 sports 378 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%158W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$190
14 days+$181
30 days+$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$178
other 20% +$82
culture 1% +$23
crypto 1% −$5
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +96.3% +77.6% 70% 70% +108.1%
≤30d 38 +23.5% +11.7% 50% 50% +27.4%
≤90d 257 -5.3% -14.3% 45% 43% -12.7%
all 344 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 45% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 45% -11.4%
10% -22.4% 44% -19.9%
15% -29.9% 42% -27.6%
20% -36.8% 31% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$660
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses158 / 186
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions33
Markets (closed)344 / 378
History coverage152d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 75¢ 62¢ $225 $187 −$38 (-17%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 51¢ 61¢ $132 $159 +$27 (+21%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 33¢ 52¢ $50 $80 +$30 (+59%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? Yes 40¢ 32¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-21%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-14%)
Will T1 Esports Academy win LCK CL 2026? Yes 30¢ 65¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+115%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+83%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Will Nongshim Challengers win LCK CL 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+64%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 40¢ 35¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will T1 make a roster change before July? Yes 25¢ 4¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-83%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $37 +$100 +269%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +276%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $30 +$31 +101%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +46%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $10 +$6 +55%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $5 +$6 +123%
Will Anyone's Legend win LPL 2026 Split 2? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$33 +668%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 29 $10 +$5 +50%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $9 −$9 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $7 +$5 +73%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $5 +$7 +140%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will "Lazarus" win Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime A May 23 $5 +$9 +177%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 22 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 20 $10 +$6 +58%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 18 $10 +$4 +42%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu May 18 $10 +$6 +55%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 17 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Will "Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc" win Film of the Year at the May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Karmine Corp win LEC 2026 Spring? May 17 $10 −$4 -43%
LoL: MVK Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular May 17 $3 +$7 +226%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 17 $5 +$8 +158%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual May 17 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 16 $7 −$7 -96%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $1 +$6 +631%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) May 16 $7 +$4 +68%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier May 15 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 15 $5 +$6 +109%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 1h
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $41 1h
Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 12h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 14h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 23h
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 41h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 55¢ $10 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $30 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 8¢ $5 4d
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 7d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 30¢ $2 8d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $660.37 · official $660.38 (match) · 744 history records