Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4E 0x4ef4…e2e9 crypto 437 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,338 (-24%) realized −$5,332 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%144W / 257L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$346
7 days−$1,294
14 days−$1,458
30 days−$2,977
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$3,888
other 10% −$1,017
politics 6% −$860
culture 4% −$25
sports 3% −$469
economics 1% −$142
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -40.0% -45.7% 28% 28% -38.7%
≤30d 185 -31.8% -38.3% 33% 32% -41.4%
≤90d 245 -23.7% -31.0% 37% 35% -39.2%
all 401 -28.7% -35.4% 36% 33% -41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 33% -41.0%
10% -41.6% 28% -46.6%
15% -47.3% 24% -51.8%
20% -52.4% 20% -56.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$39 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$5,332
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses144 / 257
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)401 / 437
History coverage144d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 210 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$10 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$9 -25%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$102 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $73 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$61 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$28 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$24 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$9 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$61 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $65 −$12 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $110 −$18 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $89 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$33 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$14 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$20 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$25 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AN BUY 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $22 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 21¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.00 · official $148.56 · 1922 history records