Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ef3…eb09 crypto 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$107 (-8%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -14.2% -22.4% 44% 33% -16.7%
≤30d 9 -14.2% -22.4% 44% 33% -16.7%
≤90d 9 -14.2% -22.4% 44% 33% -16.7%
all 9 -14.2% -22.4% 44% 33% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 33% -16.7%
10% -29.8% 33% -24.7%
15% -36.6% 33% -31.9%
20% -42.8% 11% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$104 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $412 +$174 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $105 +$189 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $203 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $323 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $209 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records