Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ef3…bd23 crypto 163 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+2%) realized +$77 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%74W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day109.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -5.4% -14.5% 46% 41% -10.7%
≤30d 162 -5.4% -14.5% 46% 41% -10.7%
≤90d 162 -5.4% -14.5% 46% 41% -10.7%
all 162 -5.4% -14.5% 46% 41% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 41% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 33% -19.2%
15% -30.1% 28% -27.0%
20% -37.0% 19% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$77
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses74 / 88
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day109.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 32¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$23 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$10 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$36 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$24 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$11 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$12 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$12 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $19 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $9 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $9 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.56 · official $8.04 · 631 history records