Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ef0…62e0 weather 445 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,493 (-12%) realized −$2,498 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%215W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days−$64
14 days−$16
30 days−$512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$2,475
crypto 0% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -43.4% -48.8% 25% 25% -29.5%
≤30d 123 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 54% -20.1%
≤90d 444 -13.3% -21.5% 48% 34% -20.5%
all 444 -13.3% -21.5% 48% 34% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 34% -20.5%
10% -29.0% 33% -28.1%
15% -35.9% 29% -35.1%
20% -42.2% 25% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$26 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$2,498
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses215 / 229
Open positions1
Markets (closed)444 / 445
History coverage95d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 444 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? No 64¢ 76¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 227 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $52 +$83 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $24 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $31 +$28 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 +$17 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 −$16 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$13 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $51 +$39 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $38 −$37 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$77 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$38 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $23 +$24 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $24 +$14 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$31 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $25 +$8 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 −$26 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $36 −$35 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $36 +$19 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $51 +$47 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$13 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $12 +$10 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $50 +$22 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$31 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $49 −$47 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 08 $50 +$23 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 08 $50 +$17 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$20 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $50 +$25 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $50 +$25 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? Jun 06 $4 +$4 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $25 +$18 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $44 +$21 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $46 +$16 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 64¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? BUY No 37¢ $52 22h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 38¢ $20 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 52¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 45¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 59¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 66¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 51¢ $31 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 36¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 42¢ $25 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 39¢ $17 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 43¢ $13 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 51¢ $18 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? BUY No 21¢ $38 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $30 9d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 42¢ $29 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 33¢ $40 10d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 48¢ $23 11d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 49¢ $23 11d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 61¢ $24 11d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 42¢ $23 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $20 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $51 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $40 12d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 61¢ $50 12d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 45¢ $31 13d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? BUY No 45¢ $27 13d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? BUY No 45¢ $36 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 75¢ $25 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? BUY No 64¢ $36 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.20 · official $34.20 (match) · 1316 history records