Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4eee…5841 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (353 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23,644 (+16%) realized +$23,632 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate69%34W / 15L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$2,630per market
Trades / day353.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$8,809now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$9,586
crypto 4% +$75
sports 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (353 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +12.6% +1.9% 69% 24% -1.6%
≤30d 49 +13.9% +3.1% 69% 27% -1.6%
≤90d 49 +13.9% +3.1% 69% 27% -1.6%
all 49 +13.9% +3.1% 69% 27% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover353.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.1% 27% -1.6%
10% -6.8% 18% -11.0%
15% ← realistic here -15.8% 8% -19.6%
20% -24.1% 8% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$3,186) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
23.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$325 vs −$103 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.67 per $1 lost it wins $7.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$8,809
Realized+$23,632
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses34 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$2,630
Trades / day353.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $7,149 $7,211 +$62 (+1%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,081 $1,089 +$8 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $157 $165 +$8 (+5%)
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? Yes 48¢ 51¢ $144 $153 +$9 (+6%)
Will Adidas be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $127 $110 −$18 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $59 $64 +$4 (+8%)
Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $5,627 +$36 +1%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $3,659 +$424 +12%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $886 +$66 +8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $82 +$20 +24%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,775 −$30 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2,307 −$12 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $128 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7,619 +$1 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $5 $0 +3%
Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? Jun 28 $420 −$45 -11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $106 +$8 +8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $8,060 −$92 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $5,228 −$10 -0%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,616 +$812 +50%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $6,132 +$1,327 +22%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $12,878 −$380 -3%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $1,674 +$62 +4%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $149 +$49 +33%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $4,017 +$96 +2%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2,520 +$37 +2%
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,773 +$134 +8%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,315 +$304 +23%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $7,598 +$142 +2%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $1,901 +$8 +0%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $6,448 +$25 +0%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,342 −$267 -20%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $81 +$9 +11%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA Jun 26 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $585 +$1,508 +258%
Will the announcers say "Barcelona" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIF Jun 26 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $6,092 +$75 +1%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $280 −$51 -18%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $3,186 −$519 -16%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 25 $67 +$2 +3%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $6,667 +$1,260 +19%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,943 +$4,144 +213%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $135 $0 +0%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $960 +$33 +3%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 24 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $220 +$10 +4%
Will Puma be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio Jun 24 $89 +$2 +2%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 24 $42 +$1 +3%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $160 +$44 +27%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $700 −$20 -3%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,730 +$59 +3%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $216 +$176 +82%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $524 +$161 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $116 37m
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $965 38m
Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 50m
Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 50m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $761 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $375 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $135 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $77 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $85 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $119 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $100 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $80 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $120 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $54 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $49 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $402 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $76 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $327 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,809.22 · official $8,907.72 · 3500 history records