Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4E 0x4ee9…d719 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$463 (-1%) realized −$460 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,318per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$114
14 days−$468
30 days−$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$354
sports 0% −$104
other 0% −$110
world 0% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -50.7% -55.4% 25% 25% -42.9%
≤30d 10 -40.3% -46.0% 10% 10% -10.4%
≤90d 10 -40.3% -46.0% 10% 10% -10.4%
all 10 -40.3% -46.0% 10% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.0% 10% -10.4%
10% -51.2% 10% -19.0%
15% ← realistic here -55.9% 10% -26.8%
20% -60.2% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$63 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$460
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage11d
Avg bet$4,318
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $101 $99 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$101 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $99 +$97 +97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? Jun 09 $8,445 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 09 $10,694 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 07 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 07 $155 −$150 -97%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 7? Jun 07 $12,630 −$2 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 7? Jun 06 $14,949 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $103 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $102 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $99 46h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $352 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $352 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.51 · official $98.51 (match) · 274 history records